Repression in Vietnam: The Price to Pay for Containing China?

Vietnam’s communist leaders are intent on securing a free trade deal with the United States. They believe they can do so even if they choose to ignore US calls to provide their people with more political freedom.

Last week, a judge in Hanoi convicted a prominent blogger, Nguyen Huu Vinh, and his assistant, Nguyen Thi Minh Thuy, of crimes against the state. In a courtroom with heavy security, judge Nguyen Van Po ruled that Vinh, 60, and Thuy, 35, were guilty of “abusing democratic freedoms.” At the conclusion of the one-day trial, the judge issued a sentence of five years in prison for Vinh and three years for Thuy. Both have been in custody since their arrest in May of 2014.

Vinh and Thuy had maintained two blogs: the first, called Dan Quyen, or Citizens’ Rights, since 2013; and the second, called Chep Su Viet, or Writing Vietnamese History, since early in 2014. They had provided links to news items covering political, social, economic, and cultural issues. They collected their information from a variety of sources, including state media outlets and activist organizations. Vinh, known by his nom de plume Anh Ba Sam, had earned a reputation across Vietnam for helping the common man with his grievances.

The crackdown against the two bloggers comes despite the commitments to protect human rights and freedom of speech made by Vietnam as a signatory to the US sponsored Trans-Pacific Partnership. The pact, which is pending Congressional approval in the US and other countries, would create a free-trade zone among 12 nations representing 40 percent of the global economy.

Last May, US Assistant Secretary of State Tom Malinowski traveled to Hanoi to encourage political reforms as part of free-trade negotiations. In July, Nguyen Phu Trong, chief of Vietnam’s communist party and the nation’s most powerful official, traveled to Washington, D.C., to meet with President Barack Obama. The relationship between the two sides has grown steadily closer.

But for the US, forging closer ties with countries such as Vietnam is part of a broader geopolitical strategy—containing the influence of China in the region. So it is unclear whether the US will be willing to alienate new friends by interfering too forcefully in their domestic affairs. Vietnamese officials seem to be betting that it will not.

Indonesia Latest Nation to Take Stand Against China in South China Sea

Tempers are flaring in Jakarta. Government leaders in Indonesia’s capital no longer are mediating their neighbors’ disputes with the Chinese government. Now they are lodging their own protests with their long-time diplomatic partners.

Last Saturday, Indonesian naval personnel arrested eight Chinese fishermen for trespassing in waters off the coast of the Natuna Islands, possessions of Indonesia northwest of its larger island of Borneo in the South China Sea. The naval authorities had taken the fishermen into custody and were towing their trawler to shore when a Chinese coast guard vessel intervened. In the ensuing sequence of events, which has not been publicly clarified, the Chinese sailors freed their countrymen's boat but not the men themselves.

Indonesian officials are holding the fishermen in custody; Chinese officials are demanding their release. Each side has staked its claim for sovereignty. In Jakarta, officials have stated their naval personnel were enforcing laws in their exclusive economic zone. In Beijing, officials have argued their fishermen were fishing in waters fished by their ancestors for hundreds of years, although they have not disputed Indonesia’s ownership of the Natuna Islands.

It is only the latest clash between Chinese forces and their neighbors in the hotly contested waters of the South China Sea. Analysts view these waters as a battleground in a region of increasing strategic value to many nations, including rising power China and established superpower the United States. Nations such as the Philippines and Viet Nam have long-standing disputes with China here. The smaller, weaker nations, with assistance from U.S. forces, want to check the southward advances of their much larger, more powerful neighbor.

Indonesia, until now, has maintained good relations with China. In fact, officials in Jakarta have served over the years as mediators in their neighbors’ disputes with the Chinese government. In the past, even when Indonesian authorities have discovered Chinese incursions like the latest one, they have chosen to overlook them.

Now Indonesian leaders are threatening legal action against their Chinese counterparts in international court. At the same time, they are fortifying their defenses across their sprawling islands with assistance from Japanese forces, a move born of their recent suspicions of their long-time diplomatic partners. The fears of Indonesian policy makers have become too strong to ignore. They believe that if they don’t take a stand against China today, then they risk losing their rights in the South China Sea tomorrow.

Outsider for President in the Philippines: "Keep Calm, Change is Coming"

It is time to celebrate in Davao City, and Mayor Rodrigo Duterte hopes the current festivities are only the beginning. Every March, for one week, residents and tourists crowd the city streets and parks to enjoy trade fairs, parades, and fireworks in a tribute to local ethnic groups. This March, Duterte, who has served for 22 years as mayor of the capital of Mindanao, the southernmost principal island of the Philippines, wants to excite the crowds for another reason.

The annual celebration of local culture, called Araw Ng Dabaw in Tagalog, lasts from the 15th until the 23rd of March, and this year the festival coincides with the run-up to elections for president and vice president in the Philippines. Duterte wants to use the occasion to generate momentum for his bid to become the next president of the Southeast Asian nation.

A recent poll of voters across the islands of the Philippine archipelago reveals Duterte as the last choice among the leading candidates, behind Grace Poe, Jejomar Binay, and Mar Roxas. Two other, recent national polls show the mayor either is the leading candidate or shares the position with Poe. Duterte believes he can win the race. People are responding to his candidacy because of his accomplishments in Davao, particularly his success in transforming the city from the murder capital of the Philippines into one of the safest areas in the world. They also point to his progressive policies during his tenure as mayor of Davao City, including the so-called Anti-Discrimination Ordinance, the Anti-Violence Against Women and Their Children Law, and a Women Development Code.

Duterte understands his challenge: to sell Filipinos on his proposal for a new power-sharing structure in the Philippines. He wants to break the island nation into a collection of semi-autonomous regions. When each of the regions controls its own budget, each will have the funds necessary to provide a basic infrastructure for its citizens. The call for federalism has become the rallying cry of Duterte’s campaign. Last Wednesday, the second day of the Davao Day festival, Duterte appeared on a stage before 20,000 people in Freedom Park in downtown Davao. As the crowd cheered and pressed forward, Duterte pointed in the direction of the slums lining the shore of the Gulf of Davao. They were a testament to the poverty deeply entrenched across the Philippine archipelago.

At 71, Duterte knows he does not have much time left in public office. But he promises to reform the existing political system of the Philippines, if elected president. He blames the system, in which the capital city, Manila, dominates the nation of 100 million people and forces most of them to live in poverty. Duterte told the masses: “Keep Calm, Change is Coming."

Candidate of the Elite Vows to Be Next President of the Philippines

Manuel “Mar" Roxas II is not worried the election could be delayed. He believes that no matter the date he will be the next president of the Philippines.

In February, officials from the nation's Commission on Elections warned of the possibility of a delay because of problems with the balloting machines. Last week they repeated the warning. The reaction across the Philippine archipelago has been swift. Many people see, instead of a technical mishap, the spectre of fraud. According to the constitution of the island nation, an election for president must occur on the second Monday of May of an election year. By law, then, the election for president in 2016 is set for May 9th.

Roxas, though, is not concerned with preserving the democratic institutions of the Philippines. He has only one objective: to secure the presidency for himself. Roxas knows, however, that he does not have a clear path to the nation’s highest office, even though he does have the blessing of Benigno S. Aquino III, the current president of the Southeast Asian nation. Surveys of voters across the Philippine islands indicate that, of the four leading candidates, Roxas shows up in last place, behind Grace Poe, Jejomar Binay, and Rodrigo Duterte.

Roxas confronts serious obstacles. Filipinos associate him with one of the worst natural disasters in the nation’s history, and with one of its biggest political scandals. In 2013, Roxas held the post of Interior and Local Government Secretary in the cabinet of President Aquino when Typhoon Haiyan, called Yolanda by Filipinos, destroyed part of the Philippine archipelago. In the aftermath of the super storm, Roxas was the presiding official during the influx of millions of dollars in aid from donors around the world; he was, also, the man in charge during the disappearance of many of these millions of dollars.

Roxas, however, has one big advantage over the other three leading candidates: he is the representative of the nation’s elite. After resigning his post in Aquino’s cabinet late last year to launch his campaign, Roxas now receives from Aquino and the Aquino family's powerful supporters resources no other candidate can match. In exchange, Roxas has to protect the interests of the ruling families who have controlled the wealth of the Philippines for decades.

Roxas believes it is his time to be president, whether he receives his mandate to rule on May 9th or on some other date in 2016. His grandfather, the first Manuel Roxas, was president of the Philippines from 1946 to 1948. His family friend and benefactor, the third Benigno Aquino, has been president from 2010 until 2016. Now Roxas wants to follow in their footsteps. He believes it is his turn.

Will Former U.S. Citizen Be the Next President of the Philippines?

Grace Poe has always been the frontrunner in the contest to become the next president of the Philippines. Now it is official. Disqualified by the nation’s Commission on Elections last December, Poe was re-qualified by its Supreme Court yesterday. But she had never stopped campaigning.

The ruling could provide the momentum to carry Poe to victory at the polls in May. Other contenders for the country’s highest office, Jejomar Binay and Mar Roxas, say they are disappointed. But no one should be surprised. In a nation where one's connections trump rule of law, not even these Filipino power players could have expected a different outcome.

Poe is a celebrity in the Philippines. Found abandoned in a church as a baby, she was adopted by Fernando Poe, Jr. and Susan Roces, two famous Filipino movie stars. And as every Filipino knows, a movie star’s fame is as good as an invitation to elected office. The joke in the Philippines is that movie stars become politicians when the public stops watching their movies.

But Poe is not a movie star. Also, she was, until 2010, a U.S. citizen. She lived in Virginia for more than half her adult life. She only became a permanent resident of the Philippines five years ago, which was the reason for her initial disqualification. She did not meet the requirement of 10 years of continuous residency in the Philippines.

Furthermore, due to the circumstances of her mysterious appearance as an infant 47 years ago in front of a church in Iloilo City, 400 miles south of Manila, it was not clear where Poe was born. Like the U.S. and other countries, the Philippines has a law that only a person born on its soil has the right to become president of the country.

Poe, by virtue of her adoptive family’s movie star status, has privileges others in the Southeast nation of 100 million do not. Three quarters of the population barely has enough food to eat each day. Poe was the frontrunner before being disqualified. She had expressed confidence her candidacy would be validated in the end. How did she know?

Surveys of Filipinos throughout the country have revealed Poe as the favorite among voters. Perhaps the voice of the people swayed the judges of the Supreme Court.

It is possible that a former U.S. citizen will be the next president of the Philippines. Although Binay and Roxas expressed disappointment in the court’s ruling, Rodrigo Duterte, another leading candidate in the race to Manila’s highest office, is more philosophical. The charismatic mayor of Davao City, the fourth largest city in the Philippines, is popular enough to have a chance to win the election on May 9th. But he knows he lacks an elite pedigree. And it is exactly such elite status which allows its holder to win elections in the Philippines.

Presidential Elections in the Philippines: Social Media

On the Frontline: Facebook

In the Philippines, young people will decide the elections. They will determine whether Rodrigo Duterte, Jejomar Binay, Mar Roxas, or Grace Poe becomes the next president of the country.

Almost half of the electorate in the Southeast Asian nation of 100 million people is under the age of 35. The notable statistic and other, official government data demonstrating the power of young Filipino voters are not lost on the four candidates leading the race to Manila’s highest office. How effectively the candidates reach this critical, election-deciding segment of the electorate will depend on how effectively they use social media.

Duterte, who launched his campaign on the 9th of February almost exclusively with assistance from volunteers, cannot succeed unless the young people at the heart of his grass-roots movement translate their social media prowess into votes at the ballot boxes on the 9th of May.

But he will have to overcome the well-oiled political machinery of Binay, Roxas, and even Poe, who could be disqualified from the contest. (The Philippines’ Commission on Elections, or Comelec, in early December ruled that Poe does not meet eligibility requirements. Poe, with citizenship in the United States as well as in the Philippines, only recently established permanent residency in the Southeast Asia nation. Poe has appealed the ruling, and she continues her campaign with the expectation that her candidacy will be validated, after all.)

Roxas, especially, wields social media as a weapon with which to fight his opponents. He uses Facebook to recruit young people to launch attack ads against Duterte. But he expects that the target of his recruitment efforts will deliver a positive response to a negative campaign.

Will young Filipinos agree to follow Roxas’ path into a business-as-usual future?

Recent surveys have indicated how important social justice is to young people around the world who increasingly see a bleak future for themselves in a world in which an increasingly smaller segment of the population comes to dominate an increasingly larger segment of the population.

The reason that Duterte attracts growing legions of supporters across the thousands of islands which comprise the Philippine archipelago is clear. The mayor of Davao City offers an alternative to a system in the Philippines in which a traditional oligarchy has locked its people into a perpetual state of poverty.

In Davao City, the capital of Mindanao, the southernmost of the three principal island divisions of the Philippines, Duterte has overseen a dramatic transformation. He has transformed one of the murder capitals of the world into one of the safest cities in the world. He has eradicated over the years criminals from the streets and from the ranks of government.

Duterte pledges to do the same across the Philippines if elected president of the country. The growing legions of supporters behind Duterte believe that he not only can do it; they believe that he will do it.

Comelec held the first in a series of debates among the candidates on the 21st of February. Polls conducted across social media at the conclusion of the debate indicated Duterte as its winner. If people under the age of 35 are the primary users of social media, then in the Philippines they are signaling that the possibility of regime change becomes more real every day.