Philippines: The Next President's Burden

From the Frontline: Davao

The campaign season has officially started — in the Philippines. As in the United States, voters will elect a new president soon. On February 9th, candidates across the Philippine archipelago launched their campaigns. On May 9th, citizens across the chain’s thousands of islands will cast their votes.

It is a critical juncture. The new Filipino president and the new U.S. president will have to work together to check the advance of Chinese forces in the South China Sea. Analysts view the region as the battleground of the future. On the front line is the Philippines. The nation of 100 million people is no match for China, a hulk of a nation flexing its muscles downward from the north. Only the Philippines' historical patron, the U.S., can save it now.

But how will Filipino and U.S. leaders come together? The answer depends on Manila’s elite. The few, society-dominating families at the top maintain a vice-like grip on power and wealth in the Philippines from their lofty perch far above the masses. How much power and wealth are these families willing to cede?

Rodrigo Duterte, the long-time mayor of Davao City, capital of the Philippines' southernmost principal island, Mindanao, promises to change the political system. His candidacy is off to a fast start. National surveys show him steadily closing in on the No. 1 position.

The stakes are high. Natural resources worth trillions of dollars lie beneath the waves. A third of all maritime traffic worldwide already passes through the South China Sea. Then there is the land grab. War could break out at any moment for territory alone. The Chinese are intent on seizing, or manufacturing, islands in the sea. The Filipinos, and others, have their national pride. The islands belong to them, they argue. But the Filipinos are weak. A traditional oligarchy, with its vice-like grip on power and wealth in the nation, has locked its people into a perpetual state of poverty.

Duterte, a charismatic leader, pledges to break the cycle. A rapidly growing number of people believe in him. They embrace his platform with its clear objective: Attack the corruption and crime at the heart of the elite’s system; provide new hope and opportunity for the people.

Of course, it will not be easy. Already Filipino officials are warning that the elections will have to be delayed. Technical issues associated with the technology for the balloting machines are causing the delay, they say. It is a pretext for fraud, many Filipinos say. The candidate of the elite, Mar Roxas, is a consistent fourth-place finisher in national polls.